0 officially set sail
China Merchants Bank (600036): Technology helps light transition retail 3.
0 officially set sail
Event On March 23, China Merchants Bank released its 2018 annual report, in which revenue was extended by 12%.
52%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 14 per year.
Brief Comment 1. The performance maintained high growth, ROE continued to rise 成都桑拿网 in 2018, and the company achieved operating income of 2485.
55 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
52%; realized net profit attributable to mother 805.
60 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.
From the single quarter of the fourth quarter, Q4 revenue increased by 9 per year.
50%, down 7 from the third quarter.
55 singles; net profit attributable to mother increases by 16.
17%, continued to increase by 0 compared with the third quarter.
In terms of revenue structure, net income is increasing by 10 per year.
72%, net non-interest income grows by 15 per year.
95%, higher than interest income.
But excluding the impact of the new financial instrument standards, the growth rate of non-indexed net income is only 4.
Profitability continues to rise.
The ROE initially attributable 深圳丝袜会所 to ordinary shareholders reached 16.
57%, an increase of 0 over the previous year.
03 averages; EPS is 3.
13 yuan, an increase of 12 over the previous year.
At the end of the year, the BVPS attributable to ordinary shareholders was 20.
07 yuan, up 13 from the beginning of the year.
2. In the fourth quarter, NIM increased by 12 BP from the previous month. The effect of multiple measures to alleviate negative pressure has been gradually improved, achieving a net interest income of 1603.
8.4 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.
72%, accounting for 64% of revenue.
53%, a decrease of 1 from the previous year.
Among them, interest rate income increased by 11 every year.
94%, after excluding the impact of new financial instrument specifications, the growth rate is 14.
57%, mainly due to the increase in the scale of interest-earning assets, the continued optimization of the asset structure, the improvement of the risk pricing level, and the increase in the yield of interest-generating assets
Interest expenses increase by 13 per year.
77%, mainly from the increase in the scale of interest-bearing debt and the rigid increase in customer cost rates.
Pioneer, company NIM up to 2.
57%, an increase of 14 BP over the previous year.
Among them, the comprehensive yield of interest-earning assets increased by 28 BP compared with the previous year. The largest part of the contribution came from loans and advances. The average yield increased by 32 BP. Among them, the yield on retail loans increased by 25 And 22 BP.
The comprehensive cost ratio of the interest payment coefficient increased by 13 BP compared with the previous year. The most affected part came from customer deposits. The average cost ratio increased by 18 BP. In addition to the increase in scale, it also suffered from increased competition from the industry and increased customer deposit return requirementsinfluences.
For example, the cost ratio of regular corporate deposits increased by 29 BP, and fixed retail deposits increased by 63 BP.
In terms of single quarter pricing, NIM was 2 in the fourth quarter.
66%, an increase of 12 BP from the third quarter, interest-earning asset yields increased by 13 BP, and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities rose by only 1 BP from the previous quarter.
By improving the structure of assets and liabilities and raising the level of risk pricing, the effect of responding to the pressure of rejection of rising costs is very significant.
3. Intermediate business income is increasing every year.
85%, the growth in bank card business income has resisted the impact of wealth management business.
Initially, 881 non-interest net income was realized.
71 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.
95%, accounting for 35% of revenue.
47%, an increase of 1 over the previous year.
But more growth comes from non-interest income other than intermediate business.
Initially, net income from program fees and commissions was 664.
80 ppm, a 10-year increase3.
Among them, bank card fee income contributed the most, increasing by 27 each year.
16 ppm, an increase of 19.
38%, mainly from the credit card business; the settlement fee income from settlement procedures increases by 10 per year.
580,000 yuan, an increase of 11.
49%, mainly from the growth of electronic payment revenue; the growth of agency fund income and financing leasing, factoring business revenue growth and agency service fees, credit commitments and loan business commissions increased by 4 respectively.
35 billion and 4.
Except for this, fee income from custody and trustee services decreased by 18.
94 ppm, a decrease of 7.
50%, mainly due to factors such as new regulations on asset management, declining social financing demand, and lower interest rates. High-yield assets on the wealth management investment side have decreased, while the elasticity of the resistance factor has decreased.Fee income decreased accordingly.
Achieve other non-interest income 216.
91 ppm, an increase of 80 in ten years.
Mainly affected by the standard conversion of new financial instruments, investment income and net changes in fair value increased by 67, respectively.
2.7 billion and 10.
9.1 billion, an increase of 113 in ten years.
84% and 62.
4. The asset quality continued to be optimized, and the non-performing loans achieved a “double reduction”. Provisions were fully improved to improve the NPL ratio and non-performing balance to achieve a “double reduction.”
At the end of the year, the balance of non-performing loans was 536.
0.5 billion, down 37 from the beginning of the year.
880,000 yuan; non-performing assets
36%, an earlier decrease of 0.
25 averages, the lowest level since 2015.
The bad generation rate and the generated amount also achieved a “double reduction”.
Initially, 352 bad loans were newly generated.
78 ‰, a decrease of 12 per year.
5.9 billion, a decline of 3 every year.
45%; non-performing loans generate income1.
01%, a decrease of 0 from the previous year.
The proportion of focus loans fell by 9 BP.
At the end of the year, the outstanding loan balance was 593.
29 ppm, a 10-year increase3.
72%; the proportion reaches 1.
51%, 9 blood pressure drops compared with the beginning of the year, and 1 blood pressure rise compared with the third quarter.
The proportion of loans overdue for more than 90 days dropped by 20 BP.
At the end of the year, the proportion of loans overdue for more than 90 days was 1.
08%, 20 blood pressure drops earlier, 7 blood pressure drops compared with the end of the third quarter.
The difference between the overdue 90-day loan and the non-performing loan is 78.
88%, a decrease of 0 from the beginning of the year.
The adequacy of provisioning has improved significantly.
At the end of the year, provision was 1918.
950,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.
56%; provision coverage reached 358.
18%, an increase of 96 from the beginning of the year.
07 single; the loan-to-loan ratio is 4.
88%, an increase of 0 earlier.
5. The proportion of retail loans increased, asset quality was further optimized, the customer base accelerated to increase the asset end, the proportion of retail loans increased, and asset quality was optimized.
At the end of the year, retail loans reached 2.
01 trillion, an annual increase of 12.
55%, faster than 5 for corporate loans.
93 units; retail loans accounted for 51.
09%, an increase of 1 from the beginning of the year.
01 percent, up 2 from the middle of the year.
Structurally, the proportion of personal housing loans remains the highest at 46.
22%, followed by credit card loans (28.
64%) and small and micro loans (17.
45%), in terms of growth, credit card loans grew faster, reaching 17.
12%, small and micro loans and housing mortgage loans increased by 12 respectively.
09 and 11.
In terms of asset quality, the NPL ratio of retail loans decreased by 10 BP to 0 compared with the beginning of the year.
79%, of which small and micro loans improved the most significantly, the NPL ratio dropped by 43 BP to 1 earlier.
34%; the lowest personal housing loan non-performing rate is 0.
28%, an earlier decrease of 5 BP; credit card non-performing rate1.
11%, unchanged from the beginning of the year.
We expect the company’s retail NPL ratio to continue to decline in 2019.
On the debt side, retail customers AUM continued to grow, and the balance of retail deposits ranked first among stock banks.
At the end of 18, the company managed retail customers AUM of 6.
80 trillion, an increase of 10 in ten years.
35%; retail deposit balance reaches 1.
44 trillion yuan, ranking first among stock banks, with an annual increase of 16.
77%, significantly higher than corporate deposits (4.
11%), and the proportion of retail deposits also rose from the earlier period2.
58 up to 35.
Among the company’s retail deposits, the demand rate is 70.
56%, significantly higher than other banks in the retail transformation process, the first-mover advantage of the transformation is very obvious.
“300 million” retail customers are flying together, and the customer base is accelerating.
In 2018, the total number of corporate savings customers and retail customers reached 100 million and 1 respectively.
2.5 billion, up 17% and 17.
61%; “China Merchants Bank” and “Handheld Life” two major APP conversion users reached 1.
4.8 billion, an increase of 43%, of which MAU exceeded 81 million, an increase of 47.
The number of corporate customers exceeded 1.8 million, an increase of 18%.
6. Significant progress has been made in the construction of a “fintech bank”. The company has continuously increased its investment in scientific and technological resources. In 2018, it invested 65 in information technology.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.
17% is 2 of the company’s operating income.
78%, an increase of 0 every year.
Gradually apply for 931 fintech innovation projects, of which 304 projects have been put into production, and the construction of “fintech banks” has made significant progress.
With retail MAU as an indicator, digital transformation has opened a new chapter.
In terms of scale, scenario-based development increases customer stickiness.
In 2018, the company’s two major APPs have become the main platforms for customer operations, with 27 of them.
11% and 44.
21% of traffic comes from non-financial services.
The scene expansion focuses on vertical segmented areas such as travel, meal and movie tickets, shopping malls, campuses, and medical care, covering scenes such as city buses, subways, and parking lots.
At the same time, digital operations improve efficiency.
In order to optimize the internal organizational structure and improve service quality and efficiency, the company established a network operation service center at the head office scale.
At the end of the year, the online business service center had 3.86 million online direct retail customers, and AUM, a direct customer, has grown for ten years.
84%, an increase of 7% over the total retail customer AUM.
In addition, the company carried out customer marketing through customer portrait tags, with a success rate of 17.
42%, initially started the personalized recommendation of “Thousands of People”.
In the future, the company will intensify its efforts to implement the strategy of “Best Commercial Bank in China with Innovation-Driven, Leading Retail, and Unique Features”, and accelerate the transition to “fintech banks”.
Specifically: the overall budget for the annual expenditure of FinTech is in principle not less than the audited operating income (group caliber) of the Bank in the previous year 3.
Among them, the budget of the “China Merchants Bank Fintech Innovation Project Fund” authorized by the board of directors is not less than 1% of the bank’s audited operating income (group caliber) in the previous year.
Therefore, the company will invest at least $ 8.7 billion in fintech in 2019, an increase of 33 compared to 18 years.
7. The “Light Bank” has achieved outstanding results and less pressure on capital replenishment.
At the end of the year, the company’s core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio were 11 under the advanced method.
78% and 12.
62%, a decrease of 0 from the beginning of the year.
28 and 0.
40 per share, but the capital adequacy ratio increased by 0 compared with the beginning of the year.
20 averages reached 15.
Under the weighting method, the company’s core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and capital adequacy ratio are 10 respectively.
04% and 13.
06%, which rose by 0 earlier.
23 and 0.
With the strengthening of financial supervision, the general business income growth rate has generally declined, and new asset investment has been concentrated in the form of the table, the company persists in advancing the “light banking” strategic layout, and the compound growth rate of net profit in the past two years is higher than the weightCompound risk growth of assets under risk law
The company adheres to the principle of endogenous accumulation of capital, supplemented by external sources, and uses multiple channels and methods to raise capital sources.
According to the company’s capital planning goals, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital sufficiency target from 2019 to 2021 are 9, respectively.
5% and 12.
5%, even considering the impact of the new asset management regulations and the “Guidelines on Improving the System’s Existing Financial Institutions’ Supervision”, it is expected that the planned goals will still be achieved.
8. Investment suggestions From the perspective of 2018 performance, the company mainly has the following highlights: First, revenue and net profit growth have maintained double-digit high growth, which is very rare among listed banks with net profits exceeding 10 billion, and this kind ofGrowing growth The performance of retail and fintech banking transformation is sustainable and sustainable.
Second, profitability advantages have increased.
The company’s ROE reached 16 in 18 years.
57%, which is significantly higher than other stock banks, and has increased by 0 compared with last year and last year.
Third, NIM picked up.
Through various measures such as the adjustment of asset and liability structure and the enhancement of risk pricing capabilities, the company’s NIM in the fourth quarter increased by 12 BP from the third quarter.
Fourth, asset quality continued to be optimized, and provisions were fully improved.
In particular, the non-performing ratio and non-performing loans achieved a “double reduction”. The proportion of attention-oriented loans and loans overdue for more than 90 days also declined.
Fifth, breakthroughs were made in the retail business to consolidate the first-mover advantage.
The proportion of corporate retail loans rose more than at the beginning.
01 average, the retail loan non-performing ratio also dropped by 10 BP.
In the process of retail transformation by various banks, the retail leader with first-mover advantage has accelerated the growth of its retail customer base. With the help of fintech, this first-mover advantage can be continuously consolidated.
In 19, the company will focus on retail transformation.
In Phase 0, under the traction of “mobile first” and “MAU North Star Indicators”, through the “China Merchants Bank” and “Handheld Life” dual-app APP strategy, it has continuously consolidated the retail customer base and systematically maintained a competitive advantage in the core business area.At the same time, it is fully moving towards the “APP era”.
Sixth, the application of fintech has accelerated, and digital transformation has achieved results.
The company benchmarked fintech companies and continued to increase its supplements to fintech, spending 65 in 2018.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.
The application of fintech has been fully reflected in retail business and corporate business, but also in risk management and infrastructure construction.
The company’s current A-share and H-share PB estimates top the list of listed banks. We believe that the market’s estimates that it is significantly higher than other banks are reasonable. Behind this high forecast is “variety scarcity”.
From the perspective of financial fundamentals, excellent indicators in all aspects such as high ROE, high performance growth rate, high net interest margin, and low non-performing ratio are many factors that support the company’s “variety scarcity”; and the first-mover advantage of retail business and financialThe retail premium and fintech premium given to the company by the accumulation of technological strength are the intermediate factors that support the “variety scarcity” and also the source that guarantees the excellent fundamental indicators; and certain factors of “variety scarcity” come from the company’s “light”Culture” gene, entering retail transformation3.
After the 0th stage, the company’s “asset-light” goal has been basically realized, and it will be transformed into the power of fintech in the future. It will further push the strategy of “light banking” to make “asset-light” operations lighter and achieve “light management” and “light”Operation” to create a “light culture” of Internet elements in developing countries.
To sum up, we believe that China Merchants Bank has a “scarcity of varieties” in the industry and needs to be given a higher valuation.
我们预计公司19\20 年营业收入同比增长14.31%, 15.
30%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 15 in ten years.
94%, EPS is 3 respectively.
70 yuan, 4.
33 yuan, BVPS is 23.
64 yuan, 26.
23 yuan, the corresponding PE is 8.
48, the corresponding PB is 1.
Maintain “Buy” rating, six-month target price of 42 yuan, corresponding to 1.
8 times PB.